How To Earn Potential Buffett-Like Returns With Apple Stock (NASDAQ:AAPL)

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Like Warren Buffett, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is my favorite company purely from a fundamentals perspective.

Apple is now an aspirational global luxury brand synonymous with modern living, convenience, technology that works, and a

Analyst Median 12-Month Price Target

Morningstar Fair Value Estimate

$201.33 (30.8X forward earnings) $150.00 (23X earnings)

Discount To Price Target (Not A Fair Value Estimate)

Discount To Fair Value

11.49% -18.79%

Upside To Price Target (Not Including Dividend)

Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividend)

12.99% -15.82%

12-Month Median Total Return Price (Including Dividend)

Fair Value + 12-Month Dividend

$202.25 $150.92

Discount To Total Price Target (Not A Fair Value Estimate)

Discount To Fair Value + 12-Month Dividend

11.90% -18.07%

Upside To Price Target (Including Dividend)

Upside To Fair Value + Dividend

13.50% -15.30%

Metric 2022 Growth 2023 Growth Consensus 2024 Growth Consensus

2025 Growth Consensus

Sales 11% 1% 7% 6%
Dividend 7% 5% 5% 2%
Earnings 9% -1% 9% 10%
Operating Cash Flow 21% -1% 7% 8%
Free Cash Flow 24% -3% 7% 5%
EBITDA 12% 0% 7% 5%
EBIT 13% -1% 7% 7%

Year Sales Free Cash Flow EBITDA EBIT (Operating Income) Net Income
2022 $391,486 $109,390 $129,326 $117,913 $98,700
2023 $388,831 $104,817 $127,786 $115,340 $96,786
2024 $413,527 $111,099 $136,351 $123,711 $103,018
2025 $441,685 $118,397 $143,418 $133,380 $110,599
2026 $485,564 $132,166 $151,445 $148,565 $120,856
2027 $540,656 $148,141 $168,523 $168,515 $134,220
2028 $598,762 $163,012 $187,525 $186,049 $144,198
Annualized Growth 2022-2028 7.34% 9.23% 6.39% 7.90% 8.30%
Cumulative 2023-2028 $2,869,025 $777,632 $915,048 $875,560 $709,677

Year FCF Margin EBITDA Margin EBIT (Operating) Margin Net Margin
2022 27.9% 33.0% 30.1% 25.2%
2023 27.0% 32.9% 29.7% 24.9%
2024 26.9% 33.0% 29.9% 24.9%
2025 26.8% 32.5% 30.2% 25.0%
2026 27.2% 31.2% 30.6% 24.9%
2027 27.4% 31.2% 31.2% 24.8%
2028 27.2% 31.3% 31.1% 24.1%
Annualized Growth 2022-2028 -0.43% -0.89% 0.52% -0.66%

Investment Strategy Yield LT Consensus Growth LT Consensus Total Return Potential Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected Return
Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF 3.6% 9.70% 13.3% 9.3%
Nasdaq 0.8% 11.2% 12.0% 8.4%
Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF 1.9% 9.7% 11.6% 8.1%
REITs 3.9% 7.0% 10.9% 7.6%
Dividend Champions 2.6% 8.1% 10.7% 7.5%
Dividend Aristocrats 1.9% 8.5% 10.4% 7.3%
S&P 500 1.5% 8.5% 10.0% 7.0%
Apple 0.5% 9.20% 9.7% 6.8%
60/40 Retirement Portfolio 2.1% 5.1% 7.2% 5.0%

Rating Margin Of Safety For Medium-Risk 13/13 Ultra SWAN 2023 Fair Value Price 2024 Fair Value Price 12-Month Forward Fair Value
Potentially Reasonable Buy 0% $156.85 $171.57 $165.91
Potentially Good Buy 5% $149.01 $162.99 $157.61
Potentially Strong Buy 15% $133.32 $145.83 $141.02
Potentially Very Strong Buy 25% $111.75 $128.68 $124.43
Potentially Ultra-Value Buy 35% $101.95 $111.52 $107.84
Currently $178.19 -13.61% -3.86% -7.40%
Upside To Fair Value (Including Dividends) -11.44% -3.18% -6.35%



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