October’s reputation for volatility remains intact.
Early enthusiasm for the earnings season took a step back on trading down, and today, on . Once again, the VIX led the volatility, shooting up to 19.3 pre-market, then dropping a whole point into the open, then rising to 18.75, taking the pace out of gains, then falling to 18.1, allowing the market to bounce.
Earnings have become a bit more mixed. Tesla (TSLA) had a beat on the top and a slight miss on the bottom. The shares traded as low as -5.5% and recovered to -3.5% (+4.8% YTD). The company has a sky-high P/E because it’s being valued in a big way on the future of autonomous driving and the Optimus robot. T-Mobile (TMUS) had small beats top and bottom, with continued growth in subscribers. The shares opened flat and then dropped 3.4% and are almost flat YTD. Blackstone (BX) had a miss on the top and a solid beat on the bottom. The shares are opened flat, then traded down 4.8% (-10.7% YTD). Honeywell (HON) had solid beats top and bottom. The shares are up 6.9% (-2.4% YTD). Union Pacific (UNP) had a small miss on the top and a beat on the bottom. The shares opened to a small gain, then moved down 2.1% (-3.3% YTD). Tonight, we’ll get .
On the commodity front, has bounced 2.4% to $4,162/oz, and silver is up 2.6%. Copper has moved up 2.3% to $5.10/oz. is up 5% to $61.40/bbl on the news of new sanctions on Russian oil, including threats of sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil. Natural gas is flat. Crypto has moved up modestly to $109.8K.
Interest rates have moved higher with the US 10-year up 4 bps to 3.99%, the 2-year up 2bps to 3.46%. Bets for a series of cuts into early 2026 are a bit softer, but October and December cuts are more or less assured. The US dollar index is slightly higher, almost reaching 99.
We have almost made it through October, and we’ll get the Fed rate cut next Wednesday. The trend remains positive, and the setup for new highs into year-end looks very good.