More jobs are lost in closing businesses than gained in new businesses.
The BLS Business Employment Dynamics (BED) report shows another net loss of jobs for 2025-Q3, the most recent release.
- From June 2025 to September 2025, gross job losses from contracting and closing private-sector establishments were 7.6 million, a decrease of 272,000 jobs from the previous quarter.
- Over this period, gross job gains from expanding and opening private-sector establishments were 7.5 million, a decrease of 110,000 jobs from the previous quarter.
BED Net Job Creation
The BED data shows a net loss of 159,000 jobs for 2025 Q3 and a net loss of 321,000 jobs for 2025 Q2.
Negative numbers are not the norm outside of recessions.
Establishment Births and Deaths
- In the third quarter of 2025, there were 323,000 establishment births which accounted for 967,000 jobs.
- Data for establishment deaths are available through the fourth quarter of 2024, when 939,000 jobs were lost at 306,000 establishments.
Closing businesses lag reporting because the BLS does not know whether an employer failed to report or went out of business.
So it’s lag on top of lag in these reports.
Firm Size
- Firms with 1 to 49 employees had a net employment decrease of 138,000.
- Firms with 50 to 249 employees experienced a net employment loss of 75,000.
- Firms with 250 or more employees added 4,000 net jobs.
Trump’s tariffs are destroying small businesses. There’s no doubt about that. But he’s too stubborn and too economically illiterate to admit it.
This looks incredibly stagflationary, but for now, AI is keeping the economy in expansion.