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The Fed’s on hold, Middle East turmoil persists, and economic conditions at home may turn worrisome
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Companies also voice concern, but their actions appear to be more bullish
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Q2 tracks for a multi-year high in the percentage of net dividend increases
As we put the finishing touches on a first half that was littered with uncertainty, a small treasure is seen in global dividend trends. Thirty percent of the companies Wall Street Horizon tracks announced shareholder-payout increases in the second quarter—the best Q2 mark going back to 2021. Also, just 9% of companies from around the world slashed their dividend, which was the lowest in three years.
Healthy Dividend-Hike Rate in Q2
Source: Wall Street Horizon
These continue strong numbers that we profiled earlier in the year. It also bodes well for the balance of 2025, despite so much macro uncertainty (there’s that word!). Indeed, now more than ever, it’s important to pay attention to and deeply analyze what those in the C-suite are doing versus what they are saying. Investors have heard the constant refrain of “macro headwinds” and “an uncertain economic landscape” ad nauseam, but all the while, corporations continue to churn out profits, buy back shares, and, yes, hike dividends (on net).
The upshot? Investors must seek signals and dismiss the noise.
More dividend payouts mean investment teams need to adjust stock prices to reflect these corporate actions properly in order to conduct time-series analysis. TMX’s Price Adjustment Curve (PAC) provides price adjustments applicable down to tick level prices or even orders, and below you can see the number of recorded adjustments for North American dividends have been steadily increasing. H1 2025 recorded 17,509 such price adjustments (as of June 22, 2025). With one week left in the second quarter that number is on track to match or beat the first half record set in 2024 of 17,771 price adjustments.
Source: TMX Datalinx
Accurately tracking and analyzing these crucial corporate actions, such as dividend changes, at scale presents its own set of challenges. For asset management and risk professionals, manual processes and fragmented data systems can obscure insights and increase risk.
Listen to that Baby Purr! Caterpillar Plowing Ahead in 2025
Earlier this month, Caterpillar Inc (NYSE:) announced a 7% dividend increase, bringing its quarterly distribution to $1.51. An S&P 500® Dividend Aristocrats Index member (companies that have raised their dividends in each of the past 25 consecutive years), the all-American brand is one of many multinational corporations facing the threat of higher tariffs.
Shares are merely flat on the year, but gains off the April 8 closing low have been massive, on the order of 30%-plus. The sellside is still gaming out how the future trade landscape will impact CAT. In May, the $168 billion Industrials-sector firm was upgraded to Hold from Sell at UBS amid improving US-China trade talks. Then, on the same day the Texas-based blue chip announced its dividend hike, BMO Capital Markets tagged CAT as a GARP candidate (growth at a reasonable price).
But the stock is a far cry from its late 2024 all-time high of $419. Resting right now at its flat 200-day moving average, the bears might argue it’s a dead-CAT bounce. Time will tell, but it appears the company’s management team is just fine with where it’s positioned heading into H2 2025.
Looking ahead, Caterpillar’s Q2 earnings date is Tuesday, August 5, BMO (confirmed).
UnitedHealth Group: Assessing the Damage
Turning from Industrials to the Health Care sector, Unitedhealth Group (NYSE:) is battling through what may be the most tumultuous year in its five-decade history. Shares are down 39% year to date, underperforming the by more than 40 percentage points on a total return basis. Before 2025 began, the tragic murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson last December heightened public and investor scrutiny of the company.
Then, in its January earnings report, higher-than-expected medical costs, particularly within its Medicare Advantage business, resulted in a soft FY 2025 profit guide.4 Investors didn’t like that—the stock fell 6% in the session that followed the Q4 earnings report. That decline was a paper cut compared to the severe pain shareholders endured three months later.
UNH plunged by more than 22% after its Q1 earnings release, its worst single-day drop in decades. Near the beginning of the earnings season in April, the company slashed its full-year profit outlook after missing on the top and bottom lines.5 Its medical cost ratio, which is like an inverted profit margin for a health insurance company, was once again above what analysts hoped for. By the time the dust settled, what was once the largest weight in the was among the biggest S&P 500 laggards in 2025.
The pain wasn’t done, however. Within a month of their Q1 report, a story surfaced that UnitedHealth was the target of a US Department of Justice probe into possible Medicare fraud.6 Another 11% was shed from the stock’s value, dropping it to the No. 10 spot on the DJIA weighting list at the time.
The good news? On June 6, UNH announced a $2.21 quarterly dividend, a 5.2% increase from the previous $2.10 quarterly payout.7 Shares, so far, have stabilized above $300 after notching an intraday low of $247 on May 15. Once the biggest company by market cap in the Health Care sector, the embattled insurer faces headwinds and public scorn, but the dividend hike news is a welcome relief for its stockholders.
UNH reports Q2 results on Tuesday, July 29 BMO (confirmed).
Macro (BCBA:) Volatility Catalysts Heading into Q3
Eyes now turn to the second half. There’s still macro wood to chop to help clear out all this uncertainty being bandied about. We expect developments on the trade front with President Trump’s July 9 reciprocal tariff pause deadline in sight. Moreover, the One Big, Beautiful Bill is still being chiseled in the Senate.
Higher due to the Israel-Iran conflict add yet another wildcard into the macro shuffle, too. All the while, it’s clear that Chair Powell and the rest of the members are standing pat on .
Be on the lookout for potential volatility this week on the data front. According to the Economic Calendar, the May Personal Expenditures Price Index (), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, hits the tape this Friday. Market bulls hope for another tame update on consumer prices.
The Bottom Line
Economic surprises have turned south, worries grow about the labor market, and there’s increasing conflict in the Middle East. Amid so much angst and a plethora of unknowns, companies signal optimism, at least according to the high percentage of dividend hikers to slashers. Though the summer travel season is in full swing, investors stay on watch as macro and firm-specific volatility catalysts are front and center—and earnings season is just two weeks away!