Trump announced an indefinite extension of the Iran ceasefire and stocks rallied.
Investors seem to be growing comfortable with the disruption of the and petrochemical markets. Despite higher oil prices following the extension of the ceasefire, stocks have recovered smartly from yesterday’s decline. The is modestly lower, wrapped around 19 for the last 3 days. Interest rates are flat to slightly down, roughly where they’ve been all week. Strong and rising earnings estimates, along with firm retail spending and stable labor markets, trump higher energy prices.
This morning, the only sector not in the green is real estate. Tech is leading again, with the Magnificent 7 all in the green. Semiconductors are strong once again. Growth names are leading, followed closely by momentum names. Retail investors appear to be chasing the rally.
Precious metals are rebounding from their recent pullback. Agricultural commodities are higher again, now +5.5% YTD. Crypto has caught a bid, with +4% today at $78.8K, the highest since January. Corporate credit spreads continue to fall and have been falling since the start of April. We are clearly in a risk-on market right now.
On the earnings front, GE Vernova (GEV) had a massive beat on the bottom as bookings surged for AI data centers, and a beat on the top. The shares are up 13% to a new all-time high, now up 71.2% YTD (+243% LTM). Boeing (BA) had beats top and bottom and had a good order book. The shares are up 2.7%, + 3.6% YTD, +38.6% LTM. After the close, we get Tesla (TSLA), the first of the Magnificent 7 to report.
Momentum remains positive, and FOMO (fear of missing out) is growing.