As Nvidia () closes in on a $6 trillion valuation, it is always interesting how the stock will react after its announcement and guidance. Nvidia will be announcing its earnings on Wednesday, April 20th. The expectations are very high, and the analyst community is estimating 79.3% sales growth of $79 billion and 119.3% earnings growth of $1.78 per share. Naturally, Nvidia also has to raise its guidance. Since the Vera Rubin GPU is ramping up, Nvidia has already forecasted that sales and earnings momentum will accelerate in 2027.
Since so many call options are written on Nvidia by Citadel and other market makers, I continue to worry that the “tail is wagging the dog.” All this option writing, all too often, holds the stock back since Citadel just wants to collect free option premiums rather than deliver stock, as options are exercised when the stock price rises. So essentially, Nvidia’s announcement is a big game of “chicken” between Citadel and other market makers, so it will be fascinating how the stock will react after its positive results and guidance.
The other interesting international development is that Cuba ran out of fuel oil, and most of the country has no electricity. CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Cuba on Thursday and had a meeting in Havana to demand “fundamental changes.” Specifically, Ratcliffe was delivering a personal message from President Trump that the U.S. was prepared to help Cuba with economic and security issues, but only if Cuba made fundamental changes.
The U.S. has designated Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism, and Ratcliffe delivered the message that Cuba can no longer be a safe haven for adversaries in the Western hemisphere. Cuba apparently insisted that it does not represent a security threat to the U.S. In the end, up to $100 million in U.S. aid was offered to Cuba if it made fundamental changes.