IEA trims 2024 oil demand growth forecast, widening gap with OPEC view

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By Natalie Grover

LONDON (Reuters) – The International Energy Agency (IEA) trimmed its forecast for 2024 oil demand growth on Wednesday, further expanding the chasm between it and oil producer group OPEC regarding the outlook for global oil demand this year.

The Paris-based energy watchdog lowered its growth outlook for this year by 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.1 million bpd, largely citing weak demand in developed OECD nations.

Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Tuesday stuck by its expectation that world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024.

The sizable split between the two forecasts is partly due to different views on the pace of the global transition to cleaner fuels.

The IEA in its monthly oil report said its lower 2024 oil demand forecast was linked to poor industrial activity and a mild winter sapping gasoil consumption, particularly in Europe where a declining share of diesel cars was already undercutting consumption.

“Combined with weak diesel deliveries in the United States at the start of the year, this was enough to tip OECD oil demand in the first quarter back into contraction,” the IEA said.

The IEA’s 2025 oil growth forecast of 1.2 million bpd – slightly higher than its previous estimate – is now marginally higher than its projection for this year.

OPEC has estimated oil demand growth of 1.85 million bpd for next year.