futures (/GC) have delivered a powerful extension from last week’s consolidation range, lifting from the Weekly Buy 1–Buy 2 cluster (4061–4044) into a decisive breakout above the Daily VC PMI mean (4089) and Weekly VC PMI mean (4097). This rally confirms the transition from a neutral/bearish posture into a bullish short-term trend structure. The initial thrust to 4189 marks a completed mean-reversion cycle: price has traveled from Daily Buy 1 → Daily Mean → Daily Sell 1 → Daily Sell 2, as well as completing the Weekly rotation from Weekly Buy 2 → Weekly VC PMI → Weekly Sell 1.
The chart displays the classic VC PMI symmetry: When price launched from the 4041–4061 confluence, probability strongly favored a return to the mean (4089), followed by a test of the Weekly Sell 1 (4152). Once 4152 was breached intraday, the next natural reversion level was Daily Sell 2 (4191), where price indeed printed its high at 4189, nearly matching the Weekly Sell 2 target at 4209.
Cycle structures align perfectly with this rally. The 30-day cycle that bottomed at the 3997–4044 accumulation zone now enters its rising phase into approximately December 24, with a window of volatility around December 1–3. The 60-day cycle projects an even broader expansion window, signaling potential retests toward 4210–4250 if momentum persists. The 90-day cycle indicates a major seasonal turning point in mid-December, which often defines the final thrust before a corrective rotation.
Momentum via MACD shows a clean upside impulse, but flattening at the highs suggests early exhaustion. This aligns with VC PMI probabilities: price inside the SELL 1–SELL 2 zones is statistically overbought. Historically, gold consolidates or retraces to the Daily Mean (4089) or Weekly Mean (4115) after entering this region.
The major rising trendline originating from 3997 remains intact. As long as gold stays above 4115, the bullish breakout remains valid. A close above 4152 (Weekly Sell 2) would open a path to the next Fibonacci extension at 4250–4270, but failure to break 4191 may trigger a controlled retracement toward 4120–4090.
Summery
Gold has completed its upside VC PMI distribution cycle from Buy levels to Sell levels, printing 4189 against the 4191–4209 Sell 2 band. This zone carries the highest probability of consolidation or reversion. Trend remains bullish above 4115, but short-term exhaustion is visible. Expect volatility in early December.
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