The AI momentum marches on. is up another 4%, up 30% since announcing the deal with OpenAI. is up 4.9%. is up 2% today, helped by Jensen Huang speaking on CNBC this morning, laying out the growth prospects for the AI buildout and how many elements NVIDIA addresses beyond the main processors. He also warned that China is not far behind in the AI race and does not have a constraint on power supply to build out their data centers. Semis opened up 1.2% this morning, now up 18.7% YTD.
The government shutdown remains at an impasse, with the key disagreement being over healthcare coverage, particularly for non-citizens. Trump has suggested that back pay for furloughed workers is optional, further stirring the pot. For investors, it’s the lack of economic data during the shutdown that is the most uncomfortable, especially with the weakening employment trends, along with inflation data as the tariffs domino through the economy. The report from the New York Fed survey showed consumers expecting inflation to be higher a year from now, and fewer people expect to be better off financially in a year.
Interest rates are flat today, still well above the level after the Fed cut in September. Bets for cuts later this month and in December remain strong at 95% & 79%. History says that the Fed leans dovish during government shutdowns.
and silver have marched to new highs today. Copper is flat. is up 1% to $62.30/bbl, the high for October, and natural gas is flat but up 9.2% for the trailing month. Nevertheless, energy is lower today. The US dollar index has clawed its way back to 98.5, a one-month high. Crypto remains soft with Bitcoin at $122.5K and Ethereum down 2.7%.
AI remains the primary theme in the positive trend, with the strength in gold seen as a somewhat disturbing development, reflecting a lack of confidence in central banks and fiat currencies. With the market up 5 of the last 6 weeks, the trend remains positive.