S&P 500: Key Factors to Watch for a Local Top as Index Approaches 5,000 Milestone


I must say that writing these days is a real challenge, and yesterday was one of those days, mostly because it was just more of the same with the troubling three continuing to lead the charge.

There is just nothing else to say there.

Is it a rising wedge that is forming in the ? It looks like one. Does it mean anything? Not sure.

The definition of a rising wedge is a bearish pattern that begins wide at the bottom and contracts as it moves higher. So, it fits that definition.

On top of that, we have divergences all over the place, most notably in the . It has certainly been the case when looking at the inverse of the .

USD/CHF-3-Hour Chart

The inverse of the 1-month implied correlation index is also going in the opposite direction of the S&P 500.

Meanwhile, there has been a divergence between the S&P 500 and junk bond ETF.

HYG-Daily Chart

There used to be a time when reserve balances even mattered, and to this point, those have stopped going higher as well.

US Treasury Cash Balance

Financial conditions have even stopped easing.

CDX Index

Even the number of stocks above their 50-day moving average has been diverging.

SPX-Daily Chart

So, unless the equity market has figured out a way to decouple itself from rates, the dollar, financial conditions, and everything else, the insanity of the last four months should be about over. I have nothing left to add.

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