Apple Stock Could Offer A Very Decent Near-Term Upside (NASDAQ:AAPL)


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Thesis

In my previous article concerning Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), I discussed why even if China were to be entirely removed from Apple’s revenue equation, the stock would, at most, experience a modest downside of approximately 4.2%. In this article, I will elucidate

TABLE OF ASSUMPTIONS
(Current data)
Assumptions Part 1
Equity Value 62,146.00
Debt Value 123,930.00
Cost of Debt 3.17%
Tax Rate 14.72%
10y Treasury 4.80%
Beta 1.23
Market Return 10.50%
Cost of Equity 11.81%
Assumptions Part 2
EBIT
Tax 16,741.00
D&A 11,519.00
CapEx 10,959.00
Capex Margin 2.86%
Assumption Part 3
Net Income 96,995.00
Interest 3,933.00
Tax 16,741.00
D&A 11,519.00
Ebitda 129,188.00
D&A Margin 3.01%
Interest Expense Margin 1.03%
Revenue 383,285.0

Revenue Net Income Plus Taxes Plus D&A Plus Interest
2023 $396,140.0 $101,541.00 $116,487.00 $129,105.80 $130,237.10
2024 $419,880.0 $110,249.00 $126,476.74 $139,095.54 $143,404.06
2025 $428,739.5 $121,108.53 $138,934.70 $151,819.76 $156,219.18
2026 $437,785.9 $133,037.72 $152,619.77 $165,776.70 $170,268.95
2027 $447,023.2 $146,141.93 $167,652.82 $181,087.36 $185,674.40
2028 $456,455.3 $160,536.91 $184,166.62 $184,166.62 $184,166.62
^Final EBITA^

Revenue Net Income Plus Taxes Plus D&A Plus Interest
2023 $383,330.00 $88,472.56 $101,684.48 $114,334.37 $118,083.33
2024 $406,060.00 $93,718.65 $107,713.98 $121,113.96 $125,085.22
2025 $417,340.47 $96,322.18 $110,706.30 $124,478.54 $128,560.13
2026 $441,151.07 $101,817.67 $117,022.45 $131,580.44 $135,894.89
2027 $467,459.20 $107,889.58 $124,001.11 $139,427.26 $143,999.01
2028 $496,592.99 $114,613.66 $131,729.32 $148,116.89 $152,973.57
^Final EBITA^

Sale of Consumer Electronics Apps (Services) Repairs (services) Banking (Services) Wearables, Homes and Accessories Total
FY 2026 223,772.35 118,573.31 28,909.58 9,556.90 38,975.92 419,788.07
FY 2027 228,851.99 135,647.87 29,950.32 10,503.04 41,142.98 446,096.20
FY 2028 234,046.93 155,181.16 31,028.54 11,542.84 43,430.53 475,229.99
FY 2029 239,359.79 177,527.25 32,145.56 12,685.58 45,845.27 507,563.45

Revenue Net Income Plus Taxes Plus D&A Plus Interest
FY 2024 $396,140.0 $91,429.11 $104,886.72 $116,792.06 $120,856.97
FY 2025 $420,030.0 $96,942.92 $111,212.12 $123,117.46 $127,182.37
FY 2026 $441,151.07 $101,817.67 $116,804.39 $130,062.46 $134,589.24
FY 2027 $467,459.20 $107,889.58 $123,770.04 $137,818.76 $142,615.49
FY 2028 $496,592.99 $114,613.66 $131,483.85 $146,408.13 $151,503.82
FY 2029 $528,926.45 $122,076.22 $140,044.84 $155,940.85 $161,368.32
^Final EBITA^

Advanced Economies Growth Emerging & Developing Growth Avg World GDP per Capita Growth % Apple Revenue Growth
2018 4.3% 5.8% 5.0% 15.9%
2019 3.1% 4.1% 3.6% -2.0%
2020 -3.5% -1.8% -2.6% 5.5%
2021 10.0% 10.9% 10.5% 33.3%
2022 9.4% 10.1% 9.8% 7.8%
2023 4.7% 6.8% 5.7% -2.6%
Correlation 50.5% 49.2% 49.9%
Covariance 0.3339% 0.3030% 0.3184%



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