Johannesburg delivered a level of drama befitting of the occasion. But beyond the shared desire for reformed global economic governance, it’s unclear how the expanded group will benefit South African citizens.
South Africa’s Police Minister, Bheki Cele, compared hosting BRICS to the World Cup in 2010 – perhaps the last time the country felt like it was the centre of the world’s attention. Fighter jets screamed over the city at regular intervals as if to remind its residents that important matters were taking place.
The message that BRICS represents 40 per cent of the world’s population and a growing share of its GDP was echoed across marketing banners at the airport and venue, and across media. These statistics seem to serve as the central justification for why the group exists, and why South Africa would want to be a part of it.
But despite the fanfare and the impressive potential of the economies involved, BRICS membership still delivers few specific economic benefits for South Africa, remaining primarily a forum for its geopolitical ambition.
And in a newly-expanded BRICS, South Africa will need to work with new partners and engage in ‘group diplomacy’ to ensure its position is strengthened and not diluted.
A desire for a multipolar world
BRICS week began with a Sunday night public address by President Cyril Ramaphosa, rooting South Africa’s foreign policy in the struggle against apartheid and a push for equal national recognition on the world stage.
In South Africa there is a historically justifiable deep scepticism of Western dominance of the global economic architecture
In South Africa there is a historically justifiable deep scepticism of Western dominance of the global economic architecture and a pragmatic desire to engage with a variety of partners in a multipolar world.
The economic repercussions of working with Russia, created by Western trade and investment partners, has prompted anger and accusations of bullying.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant for President Putin also cast an unwelcome shadow over the run up to the event, as speculation mounted over South Africa’s obligations should the Russian leader attend. (In the end he did not, by ‘mutual agreement’).
Despite these difficulties, the country has made a serious, if occasionally recalcitrant, effort to reinforce its close relations with the EU, US, and Western multilateral bodies.
BRICS is integral to South Africa’s foreign policy, helping it counterbalance relations with the West. It views the grouping as a means for collective lobbying for a more equitable international economic system, and to champion the needs and concerns of the Global South.
BRICS trade
The economic benefits of membership, however, remain unclear. South Africa is home to the first regional office of the New Development Bank (Formerly the BRICS Development Bank), but aside from this it is hard to pinpoint benefits that have been accrued by group membership.
It is true that trade between members has increased over the last 20 years. But this can be largely accredited simply to their rapid economic growth, especially of China, rather than any specific BRICS mechanism.
A secondary driver of intra-BRICS trade has been Russia’s increasing reliance on trade with China and India in the wake of Western economic sanctions.
China accounts for 68 per cent of South Africa’s BRICS trade – its top international trade partner overall, closely followed by the USA.
China accounts for 68 per cent of South Africa’s BRICS trade – its top international trade partner overall, closely followed by the USA.
President Xi Jinping arrived in South Africa early for a state visit ahead of the summit, and President Ramaphosa announced that in their private discussions the Chinese had donated R167 million in emergency power equipment and made available a grant of about R500 million as developmental assistance on energy.
Further agreements were fleshed out on the sidelines of the main summit, but the announcement served to underline the point that important matters are resolved bilaterally, not through BRICS.
Continuing division and expanded membership
Partly this is a result of the realpolitik of BRICS. Lingering geopolitical rivalries still make it difficult to act as a cohesive group, an issue illustrated by the theatrics of the occasion.
President Ramaphosa greeted President Xi Jinping off the plane when he arrived for his state visit. It was reported that India’s president, Narendra Modi, refused to disembark when a minister was sent to greet him, instead holding out until South Africa’s deputy president made his way to the airport.
Deeper divisions exist on a path forward on economic integration. Russia had been pushing for discussion of a BRICS currency, feeling the impediment of US sanctions. There is a shared desire for a less dollar-reliant world.
And the summit resolved to task finance ministers and central bank governors to consider the issue of local currencies, payment instruments and platforms and report back to the BRICS leaders by the next summit, to be held in Russia.
Moscow may find allies on this issue in Tehran. South Africa has made it clear it sees a unified currency as economically unfeasible.
This summit will mainly be remembered for President Ramaphosa’s announcement that BRICS membership will be expanded
This summit will mainly be remembered for President Ramaphosa’s announcement that BRICS membership will be expanded – a significant move that will test the diplomatic capabilities of South Africa.
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Emerging economies are keen to be part of the group that shares a desire for non-Western multilateralism. After receiving applications from 23 prospective members, six additional countries will join the BRICS starting from 2024, ushering in the era of ‘BRICS 3.0’. (BRICS 2.0 being the inclusion of South Africa in 2010).
South Africa has benefitted from being a small player in the club. Expanded membership will dilute its position – not least the inclusion of Ethiopia and Egypt as additional African members.
It could also serve as an opportunity. South Africa doesn’t want to be reliant on Beijing any more than Washington, and new members will give the government fresh options within the new framework: to engage in ‘club diplomacy’, push for reform of the global economic architecture, and amplify the voice of the Global South.
South Africa’s leaders will hold up the BRICS summit as a symbol of success for Global South multilateralism.
South Africa’s leaders will hold up the BRICS summit as a symbol of success for Global South multilateralism. Its ambitions will continue in 2025 when it will host the G20, which will also celebrate expanding membership with the inclusion of the African Union.
Thirty years after it emerged from international isolation, South Africa prioritizes being part of the club, even if the benefits of membership remain unclear.