Key Highlights:
- Stock futures were mostly flat after Trump’s meeting with Ukraine’s Zelensky on a peace plan.
- Silver has blasted past $80 an ounce to a record high, extending a rapid year-end rally driven by speculative flows and a stubborn supply-demand imbalance.
- Asian mining stocks jumped Monday after silver prices spiked to a record high.
- Bitcoin climbed above $90,000 in Asia trading, signaling a possible breakout after missing the Santa rally that pushed stocks to record highs.
- Last week, the Dow gained 1.2%, the S&P 500 rose 1.4%, and the Nasdaq added 1.2%.
- Dollar wraps up its worst week since June as focus shifts to upcoming data.
- Fed December minutes and November pending home sales, with minutes offering more rate outlook clues.
- S&P 500 is on track for an 8th straight monthly gain as investors watch rotation into non-tech sectors.
Stock futures were flat to slightly higher Sunday evening in a New Year’s holiday-shortened week, after Trump and Zelensky held “productive” talks on a Russia-Ukraine peace plan.
Last week, US stocks hovered near record highs in thin holiday trade, with the S&P 500 ending little changed and the Nasdaq 100 slipping 0.1% as materials and tech outperformed while consumer discretionary and energy lagged. gained on an AI licensing deal, and precious metals surged to fresh records, with gold, silver, and platinum all hitting new highs.
Optimism is still tied to seasonal trends, with equity bulls eyeing a potential Santa Claus Rally — the final sessions of the year and first two of January — as a driver of further gains, even as excitement over AI and the Fed’s faces increased scrutiny.
Fed Minutes Come as Investors Eye Weekly Jobless Claims, Home Sales Data
No major corporate earnings are due this week, though investors will be watching a handful of economic data releases and other reports.
Monday’s November report will offer a glimpse of future activity in a housing market strained by affordability. On Tuesday, the S&P Case-Shiller home price index will show how home price growth is cooling as buyers appear to be hitting their limits.
On Tuesday, the Fed’s December will offer fresh insight into policymakers’ views on the economy ahead of their late-January meeting. Wednesday’s will provide another read on the labor market, which remains central to the Fed’s rate decisions. From April to September, the U.S. economy likely shed an average of 20,000 jobs per month.
Economic Calendar
Monday, Dec. 29
Tuesday, Dec. 30
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Oct)
Chicago Business Barometer (Dec)
FOMC December meeting minutes
Wednesday, Dec. 31
(week ending Dec. 27)
U.S. bond markets close at 2 p.m. ET.
Thursday, Jan. 1
New Year’s Day holiday (markets closed)
Friday, Jan. 2
No major data scheduled.
As the new year begins, investors are fixated on the timing of additional . The central bank has lowered its benchmark rate by 75 basis points over its last three meetings of 2025 to 3.50%–3.75%, but the latest quarter-point cut at the Dec. 9–10 meeting was a split decision, and policymakers offered sharply differing rate forecasts for the year ahead.
S&P 500: Earnings Momentum Poised to Trump Policy Risks in 2026
Wall Street strategists broadly expect the rally to persist, with Bloomberg’s average year-end 2026 S&P 500 target at 7,555 (range: 7,000–8,100), roughly 9% above today’s close; our 7,700 target points to an 11% gain. Still, a notable rise in bond yields could trigger a first-half 2026 correction amid growing worries that monetary and fiscal policy may be too stimulative.
With just a few trading days left in 2025, the S&P 500 is up nearly 18% for the year, and the tech-heavy is ahead 22%.
Next week’s action may make or break the emerging Santa Claus Rally, which spans Dec. 24 to Jan. 5.
But the tech sector—the primary engine of the more than three-year bull run—has stumbled in recent weeks even as other groups have strengthened. Despite a rebound this week, S&P 500 tech is still down more than 3% since the start of November, while financials, transports, healthcare, and small caps have logged solid gains over the same period.
Technical Analysis:
DJIA Index
- The DJIA remains in an upward channel that began at the August 2025 lows.
- After a bear-trap move in mid to late November, the index has moved back inside this channel.
- In the near term, the DJIA is expected to trade between 48,600 and 47,530.
- A decisive break above or below this range would likely set the short-term trend.
DJIA Daily Candlestick Chart
Nasdaq 100 Index
- The NDX has broken below its ascending channel, which now acts as firm resistance around 25,850–25,950.
- If rallies are capped below this zone, a pullback toward 24,650, and potentially 24,200 remains in play.
- A sustained break above 25,810–25,850 would invalidate the bearish outlook.
NDX Daily Candlestick Chart
SPX Index
- SPX rejected the lower boundary of the rising channel it broke below in mid-November.
- The index hit a new all-time high on Friday at 6,947.77 before giving back gains.
- It could extend higher toward 6,980–6,990, though this move may be short-lived ahead of the 7,000 psychological barrier.
- This upside scenario holds as long as support at 6,900–6,890 remains intact.
SPX Daily Candlestick Chart
Weekly US Indices Probability Map
- The U.S. weekly market probability map for Dec. 29–Jan. 2, 2026 signals a mixed-to-bearish outlook, reflecting month, quarter, and year-end related selling.
- These probability maps are derived from historical seasonality patterns.
- The sentiment readings are driven by a seasonality-based scoring system.
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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.
He is the founder of TwT Learnings, provides financial market training.
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