Investing.com — Goldman Sachs has warned of “significant consequences” for US consumers if President-elect Donald Trump moves forward with proposed tariffs on imports from Canada, casting doubt on whether the plan will ultimately be implemented.
Reuters reported on Tuesday that Trump’s proposed 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports would include , a key resource for US refineries. The oil industry has raised concerns that such a policy could harm consumers, the energy sector, and even national security.
Canada and Mexico together supply approximately 25% of the crude oil refined in the United States, which is turned into products such as gasoline and , according to data from the US Department of Energy.
Many US refineries are configured specifically to process crude from these two countries, leading industry experts to hope that oil might be excluded from any protectionist trade measures.
However, according to Reuters, citing sources familiar with the matter, oil would not be exempt from the tariffs.
Daan Struyven, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, noted that a 25% tariff on Canadian imports would likely drive up fuel prices in the US.
Tariffs “could in theory lead to some pretty significant consequences for three groups of people: US consumers, US refiners, and Canadian producers,” Struyven said during a roundtable discussion. Yet, he expressed skepticism about the likelihood of such tariffs, given Trump’s focus on keeping energy costs low.
The US currently imports nearly 4 million barrels of Canadian crude oil per day, a reliance that enables domestic producers to export more of their own oil.
The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers’ CEO warned that imposing tariffs would increase energy and gasoline costs for US consumers.
The leading oil trade groups in the United States have voiced opposition to the proposed tariffs, marking an unusual divergence from Trump.
“Across-the-board trade policies that could inflate the cost of imports, reduce accessible supplies of oil feedstocks and products, or provoke retaliatory tariffs have potential to impact consumers and undercut our advantage as the world’s leading maker of liquid fuels,” said a representative for the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), an organization representing oil refiners.
The AFPM emphasized that it would “continue urging officials to veer clear of any policies that could disrupt America’s energy advantage.”