US June Payrolls and Consumer Sentiment Paint Mixed Picture: Markets Eye Fed Path

Key Highlights

• rose about 1% on Monday as U.S. and Iranian strikes underscored the fragility of their interim peace deal, while expectations of renewed energy traffic through the Strait of Hormuz limited the rally. The two countries agreed to restart talks over the strait, boosting hopes of salvaging the pact after days of tit‑for‑tat attacks.
• slipped on Monday as Middle East tensions raised inflation concerns and bolstered bets on further Fed rate hikes. fell 1.06% to $4,045.07 an ounce at 1324 GMT, while U.S. August futures dropped 1% to $4,056.70/oz. The metal slid 1.7% last week and is on track for a June decline of more than 10%, its fourth consecutive monthly loss.
• UK stocks slipped on Monday as renewed Middle East hostilities hurt risk appetite, with investors also awaiting a highly anticipated speech from Andy Burnham, widely tipped to become Britain’s next prime minister.
• The dollar was on track for its largest monthly gain in nearly a year on Monday, backed by rising odds of rate hikes and upbeat U.S. economic sentiment, as investors monitored Gulf developments ahead of a key jobs report later this week. The U.S. and Iran exchanged attacks over the weekend before agreeing to pause and meet in Qatar on Tuesday, leaving markets uneasy about the ceasefire and pushing oil prices higher.

Wall Street opened higher on Monday as easing Middle East tensions lifted sentiment. The gained 119.0 points (0.23%) to 51,995.14, the S&P 500 added 37.9 points (0.51%) to 7,391.88, and the rose 204.5 points (0.81%) to 25,502.09.

Investor focus will be on upcoming , which could clarify U.S. economic strength, raise odds of near-term rate hikes, and add volatility to a market already unsettled by tech swings.

Major U.S. equity indexes look set to finish a strong first half, with the S&P 500 up more than 7% year-to-date, even though June has been choppy. Semiconductor stocks have fluctuated sharply this week as investors recalibrate expectations for AI-driven profits.

US Economic Data and Earnings Calendar

June jobs, due Thursday, will be closely watched as the considers higher rates, following and earlier in the week. Data suggest a strengthening labor market; May saw a third straight payroll increase of 172,000 jobs and persistently low unemployment.

Higher prices are nudging consumers to curb spending, executives at Home Depot and McDonald’s say. More big brands will report on consumer health this week, with Nike due Tuesday and General Mills on Wednesday.

Economic Calendar: (Week of June 29 – July 02)

Monday June 29

Tuesday June 30

• ; ; FHFA ; S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

Wednesday July 1

• ; ; EIA ; ; MBA Mortgage Applications.
• Fed Chair Warsh Speaks.

Thursday July 2

• Nonfarm Payrolls; ; ; Average Workweek; Business Inventories; Continuing Claims; EIA Natural Gas Inventories; ; .

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar, a more detailed calendar

Key Earnings Calendar: (Week of June 29 – July 02)

Monday June 29

• AeroVironment (), Concentrix (), Quantum ().

Tuesday June 30

• Barnes & Noble Education (), Constellation Brands (), Nike (), Progress Software ().

Wednesday July 1

• FactSet (), General Mills (), Greenbrier (), MSC Industrial Direct (), National Beverage (), UniFirst ().

Thursday July 2

• Anavex Life Sciences (), Bitmine Immersion Technologies (), Lindsay ().

https://www.investing.com/earnings-calendar, a more detailed calendar

Nike (NKE) reports fiscal Q4 Tuesday after the close; analysts expect EPS of $0.13 (down 7% YoY) and sales of about $10.9 billion (‑2%). Its digital business remains pressured, slowing revenue recovery, but investors may take comfort in a strong track record — a trailing four‑quarter average earnings surprise of 40%.

Weekly US Indices Probability Map

• The U.S. weekly market probability map for June 29 – July 02, 2026 suggests “Bullish week ahead!”.
• These probability maps are derived from historical seasonality patterns.
• Sentiment readings are derived from a seasonality-based scoring system.

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of any assets and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or advice to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky; therefore, any investment decision and the associated risk are the sole responsibility of the investor. Additionally, we do not provide any investment advisory services.

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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, & Fund Management. He is the founder of www.twtlearning.com providing financial education, research and advisory services to fund & hedge fund managers and family offices.

He has been trading FX, FX options, US stocks & options, Indices, Commodities & Oil, and Metals Futures. He has a CMT charter, an AAPTA membership, and a CMT Canada membership. He has worked in various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.

He is regarded as an excellent mentor and has trained more than 2000+ users in North America, Gulf countries & Asia on financial markets & products, active and passive trading, and technical analysis strategies. He emanated technical analysis daily and weekly reports for BridgeNews Chicago bureau and updated technical analysis reports on Bloomberg and Reuters while working with ABN Amro bank treasury & capital markets. Has moderated and produced technical analysis reports for Thomson Reuters (Refinitiv) users’ chat rooms and trained users on technical analysis techniques and models. Conducted TA & Global Markets outlook workshop with central banks, sovereign funds, global & regional banks & family offices.