Every holiday season, we get a parade of predictions: the market’s going up… down… it’ll crash… AI will save us… AI will doom us. The noise is endless — and mostly useless.
So here’s a bold forecast I actually stand behind: If you follow anyone’s prediction, you’re very likely to be poorer for it.
Here’s why:
1) Conflicted Incentives
If someone truly knew what the market would do, why would they broadcast it instead of benefiting personally? Their headlines enrich them, not you.
2) Zero Accountability
Pundits make wild calls with no consequences if they’re wrong. No one holds them to it, so rigor goes out the window.
3) Markets Are Efficient
If everyone has access to the same information, it’s almost always already priced into the market.
4) Clickbait Catnip
“Top 10 Market Moves for 2026!” gets eyeballs — not results. Algorithms love it. Investors shouldn’t.
5) Stick to Your Plan
If you have a financial plan, trust it. It’s engineered for your long-term goals, not the latest headline.
But Here’s One Forecast I Do Believe In: The most reliable way to grow your portfolio in 2026 is simply to add money to your taxable and tax-deferred accounts as your plan allows.
That’s not glamorous — but it works.
A Real Example of Why Forecasts Fail
Remember Spring 2025?
- On “Liberation Day” (April 2, 2025), President Trump’s broad tariffs rattled markets, triggering sharp sell-offs and fears of recession. Bloomberg and other outlets described a pervasive “Sell America” trade — equities, bonds, and the dollar were being sold as investors priced in heightened risk.
- That grim narrative sounded convincing at the time — but markets had the last word.
If you bought the on Jan 2nd, 2025, took their advice and sold at the open on April 7th, 2025, you would have suffered a staggering -17% loss.
If you bought the S&P 500 at the open on April 7th, 2025 (the first trading day after liberation day) through December 30th, 2025, you would have made 28.79%.
That’s exactly the sort of messy, unpredictable outcome that makes forecasting such a losing game for most investors.
So, What Should You Do Instead?
Look to this well-known truism: “Accept what can’t be changed, have the courage to change what can and wisdom to know the difference.”
- Live within your means
- Stay diversified
- Rebalance when appropriate
- Ignore the noise
Market forecasters will always shout. But consistent investing and disciplined planning get you real results — not soothsaying.