Investing.com– Oil prices edged lower on Friday on expectations of a supply surplus in 2025, but losses were capped by the optimism around top importer China’s fresh stimulus measures to boost its sluggish economy.
At 08:30 ET (01:31 GMT), ticked 0.1% lower to $73.34 a barrel, and edged slightly down to $69.59 a barrel.
However, both contracts, expiring in February, were set for sharp weekly gains as China’s key policy meeting over the week cheered markets on hopes of more stimulus measures. Sentiment was also helped by expectations of a Federal Reserve cut next week, which would bolster economic activity in the U.S., and increase demand.
IEA oversupply outlook drags oil prices
Prices settled largely unchanged on Thursday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) slightly raised its demand forecast for next year but maintained its projection that the oil market will remain adequately supplied.
Market sentiment has also been influenced by broader economic concerns, including weaker-than-expected demand growth in China, traditionally a key driver for global oil consumption. The IEA noted that China’s oil demand has been contracting, further underscoring the expected oversupply scenario.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, known as OPEC, had lowered its forecasts for oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025, on Wednesday, its fifth consecutive downward revision. The cartel had also recently extended its run of supply cuts.
Despite the bearish supply forecast, refinery runs are picking up in December, and seasonal factors may lend temporary support to prices, according to IEA. However, traders remain cautious about the outlook as rising supply and tepid demand recovery weigh on the balance sheets.
China stimulus cheer keeps oil prices supported
China announced plans to boost its budget deficit, increase debt issuance, and ease monetary policy to sustain economic growth amid anticipated trade tensions with the U.S., as highlighted in a state media readout from the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) held on Dec. 11-12.
Analysts interpret this shift in tone as a signal that China is prepared to take on greater debt to prioritize economic growth over managing financial risks in the short term. These measures aim to stimulate industrial activity, infrastructure development, and consumer spending, which can increase energy consumption, particularly for oil.
U.S Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated on Wednesday that a weaker global oil market could present a chance for additional action against Russia’s energy sector, as the U.S. continues to work to hinder Moscow’s ability to wage war against Ukraine. The implications of a possible supply cut from Russia also provided support to oil prices.