(Reuters) – There is a 71% chance of La Nina weather conditions developing during the September to November period, a U.S. government forecaster said on Thursday.
The weather conditions are expected to persist through the January-March period next year, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast.
WHY IT’S IMPORTANT
La Nina, a climate pattern that begins with colder-than-normal ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is linked to both floods and drought, as well as an increase in the frequency of hurricanes in the Caribbean.
La Nina is expected to bring less rain, worsening drought conditions which could affect agriculture globally.
CONTEXT
The cycle between El Nino, La Nina, and a neutral phase typically lasts two to seven years.
Earlier this week, Japan’s weather bureau said that there was a 60% chance of a La Nina phenomenon occurring from now until winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
Brazilian soybean farmers could produce 14% more in the 2024/2025 season, compared with the previous one, a Reuters poll showed, as expectations of more rain in the last quarter of the year rise.
KEY QUOTES
“The agricultural and livestock sectors are clearly most at risk from the effects of La Niña with many of these areas key for the production for crops such as soybeans and corn,” David Oxley, head of climate economics at Capital Economics said.
“The typical La Nina may not materialize if the signal is weak. However, the main area to watch for dryness concerns and crop production reductions is the crop lands of Argentina, Uruguay and southeast Brazil during their summer,” AccuWeather’s lead international forecaster Jason Nicholls said.