Nairobi — The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) has forecast a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall across much of the northern Greater Horn of Africa during the critical June-September 2026 rainy season, raising concerns over potential impacts on food security, water availability, and livelihoods in the region.
The outlook released by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) designated regional climate centre shows that below-average rainfall is expected to affect large parts of South Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, and sections of western and coastal Kenya.
ICPAC issued the forecast under the WMO-supported network of Regional Climate Outlook Forums, which bring together climate scientists, meteorological services, and sectoral stakeholders to generate seasonal forecasts used for planning and early warning across climate-sensitive sectors.
GHACOF serves as a key regional platform that convenes experts and users from sectors such as agriculture, health, water resources, and disaster risk management to interpret climate information for decision-making. The seasonal outlook is particularly critical as the June-September period accounts for more than half of annual rainfall in many northern parts of the region and over 80 percent in Sudan.
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The anticipated below-normal rainfall could have far-reaching implications, particularly for rain-fed agriculture, livestock production, hydropower generation, water supply systems, food security, and public health preparedness.
“June to September is a vital rainy season for countries in the northern and western parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, accounting for over 50% of annual rainfall and more than 80% in most parts of Sudan,” the World Meteorological Organization said.
ICPAC noted that the evolving 2026 climate conditions bear similarities to strong El Niño years such as 1997 and 2023, when several parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, and western Kenya experienced suppressed rainfall during the same season.
“These past years provide useful guidance for preparedness and anticipatory action; however, this seasonal forecast remains the main reference for planning and decision-making,” ICPAC stated.
The World Meteorological Organization is expected to release an updated outlook on El Niño conditions at the beginning of June, which may further refine seasonal expectations.
The forecast indicates distinct spatial variations in rainfall distribution across the region.
A Near-normal rainfall conditions are expected in northern Sudan, southern coastal Somalia, and parts of Kenya while there is a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall (60-80%) over central, northeastern, and northwestern Ethiopia, southern Sudan, and northern Uganda, with the strongest deficits projected in northeastern Ethiopia.
The report further showed, isolated pockets of enhanced rainfall are forecast over northern Sudan, southeastern Ethiopia, and parts of Somalia, including southern and northern coastal areas.
A delayed onset of rains is likely in parts of South Sudan, Ethiopia, and southern Sudan, while localized areas in north-central Ethiopia and central Sudan may experience near-normal or slightly early onset.
In addition to rainfall deficits, the outlook also points to a higher likelihood of above-normal temperatures across most of the Greater Horn of Africa.
The strongest warming signals are projected over northern Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia, conditions that could further intensify water stress and evaporation losses.
ICPAC emphasized that National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) across member states will issue detailed country-specific forecasts and advisories to support preparedness planning and early action.
GHACOF, which convened on 18-19 May 2026, brought together representatives from all 11 IGAD member states.
They are: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda, alongside stakeholders from agriculture, water, health, disaster risk management, climate change, media, NGOs, humanitarian agencies, and development partners.
The forum stressed the importance of translating seasonal forecasts into practical early warning systems and coordinated responses to reduce the potential humanitarian and economic impacts of climate variability across the region.