As Beijing prepares to host the 2024 Forum on China Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), I reflect on issues of possible interest to the Chinese investor with focus on Africa in general and Zimbabwe in particular.
I discuss how Zimbabwe and the continent of Africa can leverage on opportunities presented by the dual planks of FOCAC and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Zimbabwe is a country with enormous potential that has been suppressed by over 20 years of Western sanctions, but is now rising as a strategic player in the 16-member Southern African Development Community (SADC).
It has just become the chair of SADC for the next year. President Mnangagwa is on a State visit to China and will attend the FOCAC Summit with other African leaders.
China has been the major investor in Zimbabwe, coming from State-owned companies and the private sector, valued at US$300 million in 2023 alone, according to the Zimbabwe Investment Development Authority.
Much of this investment has gone into mining, infrastructure (including energy and airports), and industry.
Most of the China-funded projects are completed on time, regardless of size. For example, the US$533 million Kariba Hydropower project that added 300MW to the national grid was completed in 2018, a thermal expansion project at Hwange added another 600MW this year, while the China-funded US$150 million rehabilitation of Zimbabwe’s main international airport in Harare is undergoing final touch-ups and already in use.
There are some common features of these Chinese investments which set them apart from investments coming from other source markets, and that is their speed, size, impact and transformative nature.
For example, the US$1,5 billion integrated steel manufacturing plant set up in Midlands by Chinese firm Dinson Iron and Steel Company draws on upstream and downstream supply chains that go beyond Zimbabwe, benefiting its neighbours in SADC in areas that include employment creation and helping meet infrastructure construction and industrialisation needs.
The social impact of Chinese investments in Zimbabwe has been most visible, with some of the major companies prioritising corporate social responsibility as they have invested in social sectors such as education and health for local communities.
Sinomine Bikita Minerals in Zimbabwe’s Masvingo province is one such example where the company has drilled boreholes, electrified and built roads for local communities.
Zimbabwe has remained resolute under Western Sanctions
Resilience, creativity, innovation and hard work are traits that define Zimbabweans, acquired and well tested during the challenging years of the country’s protracted liberation struggle in the 1970s.
The sanctions, particularly through the American ZIDERA (Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act), direct Western financial institutions to suspend balance of payments support, which has negatively impacted the country’s macroeconomic performance due to fiscal constraints and investment hesitancy.
The sanctioning of key agricultural and infrastructural developmental institutions has also made it difficult for the country to achieve its economic potential.
And only 6 out of 27 commercial banks have been able to perform international transactions, as the financial institutions severed correspondent banking relationships, leaving the sector incapacitated.
Government has been on a persistent diplomatic initiative to gain solidarity and raise awareness on the illegal nature of the sanctions as these were imposed with no UN approval.
China as a friend of Zimbabwe has led the global pushback, for example in thwarting the anti-Zimbabwe movement attempts to legitimise their actions through the UN system.
The international campaign has also been crucial, coming from other progressive countries of the world, most notably Zimbabwe’s own neighbours in SADC who set aside October 25 every year since 2019, as Anti-Sanctions Day calling for the unconditional lifting of sanctions, among other solidarity measures.
SADC solidarity is also motivated by the fact that the collateral damage goes beyond Zimbabwe, affecting neighbouring countries for example, if Zimbabwe fails to reach its macro-economic convergence targets pursuant to regional integration in the sub-region.
These efforts by Government and the solidarity from allies have yielded important, albeit partial, victories with the staggered lifting of sanctions, the latest of which came this year when many of the leaders and companies on the US list being removed.
Zimbabwe and SADC will, however, not tire until the illegal sanctions are completely and unconditionally lifted.
China cooperation can help Zimbabwe resolve its debt arrears
Zimbabwe’s total public debt was US$17,7 billion as of September 2023 of which US$12,7 billion was owed to external creditors ,while internal debt stood at US$5 billion.
Of the US$9,1 multilateral and bilateral debt, much of that is arrears and interest from defaulting on payments due to the constraints created by 24 years under sanctions.
Loans from China total US$2 billion or 16 percent of external debt, received mostly in the last 20 years when Zimbabwe has been ineligible for loans from multilateral creditors. China has been supportive of Zimbabwe’s efforts at clearing its debt obligations.
Since 2021, Zimbabwe has committed to clearing its arrears with multilateral and bilateral creditors, adopting the Arrears Clearance, Debt Relief and Restructuring Strategy to resolve the longstanding monetary challenges and improve its credit rating.
Industrialisation and “Made in Africa”
An obstacle to establishing a “Made in Africa” hub and making the continent a competitive global manufacturing centre is the infrastructure gap.
China, through the Belt and Road Initiative and FOCAC is changing the narrative, with US$200 billion having already been channelled to Africa’s development in the last 24 years, including in investment in infrastructure.
To improve Africa’s competitiveness, top on the list is energy, particularly in the context of industrialisation becoming the main development agenda in Zimbabwe and SADC.
The critical importance of energy in driving industrialisation cannot be overemphasised, and yet most countries in the region and in Africa in general, suffer crippling power shortages.
Africa is on the lower end of the global energy divide between those who have it and the so-called energy have-nots, with a manifestly low kilowatt hour per capita.
While China has succeeded in providing universal access to energy for 1,4 billion citizens, Africa still falls far behind, averaging below 50 percent. Zimbabwe fares relatively better at 60 percent, but that too shows there is still a lot of work to be done.
Zimbabwe lies at the heart of SADC, making it geographically strategic as a manufacturing and logistic hub, and facilitating regional connectivity and trade in southern Africa.
The road network is currently undergoing extensive rehabilitation, the most comprehensive since the country’s independence in 1980.
China’s technology can help Africa’s green energy transition
China can do well to help Africa with its advanced technology to harness the continent’s huge potential in Renewable Energy (RE) sources such as hydro, solar, wind, and geothermal. This is already happening and needs to be scaled up on two fronts, that is FOCAC and BRI, leveraging on synergies with the African Union Agenda 2063.
FOCAC 2024 is highly anticipated in Africa
In a world that is facing many challenges including big power rivalry, FOCAC presents a fresh South-South cooperation partnership that is mutually beneficial.
FOCAC emphasises mutual respect, equality, and joint consultation. These are very key features of FOCAC which makes it different from other partnerships that Africa has with other countries and regional bodies around the globe.
Given Africa’s infrastructure gap and the new agenda for industrialisation in line with the aspirations of the African Union Agenda 2063, there is a keen interest in the synergies that can be provided by the joint implementation of the BRI by China and Africa.
Africa looks forward to discussions that can upscale current projects across the many economic and social sectors to produce the next level of pragmatic cooperation and for Zimbabwe, one that can propel it into middle income status by the year 2030 in line with President Mnangagwa’s vision for the country.
This is aligned to the FOCAC theme of “Joining Hands to Advance Modernisation and Build a High-Level China-Africa Community with a Shared Future”, and should therefore be discussed and included in the FOCAC Declaration and Action Plan to be agreed at the forthcoming Summit.
Munetsi Madakufamba is executive director of the Southern African Research and Documentation Centre (SARDC).